Deterrence : A Security Strategy against Non Traditional Security Threats to Pakistan

Deterrence as an approach aims to prevent a non-state actor who is planning to threat and harm a nation state externally and internally. The present study designed to find out that to what extent Deterrence as security strategy is effective against non-traditional threats in Pakistan?, and Whether the deterrence as security strategy remains effective against non-traditional threats of terrorism and cyber threats in Pakistan? The world has redefined and reorganized the security strategies after 9/11terroists attacks. The fourth wave in the deterrence theory has extended the deterrence security concept and added up the non-traditional threats as necessary part in security planning. Non-Traditional threats, terrorism, ambiguous warfare, cyber threats, water security, human security and energy crises etc now have equal importance with the border security. To protect the state from these actors, Pakistan is now reassessing and reorganized its security strategies. But these policies need more deliberate efforts to deal with such internal and external factors that are slowly and constantly weakening the state.


Introduction
Deterrence theory is an old phenomenon but has gained an importance after the first invention of atomic bomb and its attack on Hiroshima Nagasaki in WWII by the US.These massive destructive attacks ruined the humanity and started a nuclear race to deter the enemies.Soviet Union also launched its nuclear weapons.At present many world countries including Pakistan have nuclear arsenals and can deter the enemies .This theory after 9/11 terrorist attacks has changed the traditional concept of military security and Cite this article as: F.Z. Syed and S. Javed (2017) Int.J. Soc.Sc.Manage.Vol. 4, Issue-4: 267-274. DOI: 10.3126/ijssm.v4i4.18503non-traditional threats like terrorism, ambiguous warfare, food security, human security etc added as an essential part of security strategies with traditional and conventional approach.
Pakistan is highly effected country by terrorism and other internal security threats by different non state actors.These threats badly sabotaged the peace and internally destabilized Pakistan.Internal weak systems invited the terrorists a safe place and as a result Pakistan faced massive destructions and threats to the citizens' lives and other F.Z. Syed and S. Javed (2017) Int. J. Soc. Sc. Manage. Vol. 4, Full text of this paper can be downloaded online at www.ijssm.org/&http://nepjol.info/index.php/IJSSM/issue/archivehuman security aspects.These threats also related to border issues internally weak states fail to secure borders because internal state based actors facilitate other non state actors to assault.Pakistan after 2015, has added non-traditional threats with the traditional security.
The present research paper will focus on two research questions, to what extent Deterrence as security strategy is effective against non Traditional threats in Pakistan?Whether the deterrence as security strategy remains effective against nontraditional threats of terrorism and cyber threats in Pakistan?

Background of the Study
Theory of Deterrence is considered a conflict managing device.There is abundant proof of the use by all the ancient kingdoms.Deterrence begins with the beginning of nuclear weapons, which remained a priority for policymakers to find out new ways of thwarting destructive wars yet exploiting any strategic nuclear gain for political gain.
Theory of Deterrence has gained much importance as a strategy used by military during the Cold War era with regard to the use of nuclear weapons.Deterrence is a military strategy proposed to deter an adversary from taking an illegal step not yet started, or to stop them from doing something that another state desires.Nuclear deterrence has been a central element of US security policy since the Cold War started.The deterrence security concept is simple; convince an approaching an adversary that the risks and costs of his expected planned action far outweigh any gains that he might hope to attain.To deter its enemies, the US built up significant strategic and deliberate nuclear forces that could easily threaten any suspected aggressor with the terrible risks and costs of a nuclear retaliatory strike against a sovereign state.
During the Cold War period, nuclear deterrence was a keystone of US security strategy to prevent the West by the Soviet Union by his threatening messages o use nuclear weapons against them.But major changes made in the deterrence history after 9/11 terrorist attacks in US, these attacks brought a drastic change in the security strategies history.It captured the attention of the security planners, institutions, agencies as well as political governments to focus the nontraditional security concepts and add it up with the traditional security strategies.
Many theorists consider deterrence in terms by retaliation but deterrence theorists added another type of "deterrence by denial" strategy which stops an adversary by getting his benefits through his course of action.If non state actors think that they can succeed or easily get their benefits from their unlawful deeds or actions, they may be deterred from doing it.Deterrence holds potential to help put off terrorist physical attack in the future.
In Pakistan case, the traditional and non-traditional security threats since her inception, particularly post 9/11 attacks, had changed the security measures.Unfortunately political, economic, social and environmental security aspects never remained under the focus of security planners or policy makers.Deep analysis of Pakistan security policy reveals that border security is the only core issue.Policy makers always focused the traditional and conventional aspects and nontraditional threats to internal and external security were badly neglected.However army public school Peshawar terrorists attack has somehow diverted the attention of the security planners.National Action Plan (NAP) was announced with an addition of nontraditional threats like terrorism but still mostly un-conventional threats are not under deliberation.
It is the utmost duty of all the security institutions weather they are political or non political, they should focus the extended security strategies with traditional threats.The internal and external security is the key demand of the overall development of Pakistan.Kofi Anan once said; 'No development without security and no security without development'.

Literature Review
Lawrence Freeman ( 2004) "Deterrence" elaborated in his book that deterrence theory has significance in the ancient time but it still has an importance in today's world.He believes that constructivist, realistic approaches, criminological approaches and tactical studies literature to develop a notion of a norms-based, as divergent to an interest-based, deterrence.The study of deterrence has been disadvantaged by the weight of the intellectual cases build up since the end of the WW II.Extended thinking of what deterrence could achieve were developed.In this book, Freedman mentions the evolution of the modern concept of deterrence, and discusses whether it is still has significance in contemporary world Barry Buzan (2008) in his book" People, States and Fear: An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Postcold War Era" how states and human societies chase freedom from threat in an atmosphere where competitive associations are unavoidable across the political, economic, military, shared and environmental landscapes.He argues that the security concept is a versatile, keen and useful way to understand international relations.Security gives a systematic framework which stands between the limits of power and peace, integrates their insights and adds more of its own.

Theoretical Framework
Deterrence being an old phenomenon got significance after the development of nuclear bomb.Deterrence as a theory describes that nuclear arsenals are develop to deter other states for offensive and attacking purpose with their nuclear arsenals, through the assurance of revenge and mutually assured destruction (MAD).Deterrence as an old theory of international relations gained a significant importance in 21st century with the development of the wars from old wars to atomic wars.Nuclear advancement no doubt has given the new security approaches to the world.
The deterrence word take a start from Roman proverb "Sivis Pacem, Para bellum" means if individual need peace he must be ready for war.Thomas Schelling's (1966) in his classic work on the concept of deterrence stated that the deterrence being a military tactic can be no longer defined as the military strategy.He disagreed that military strategy was now equally, if not more, the art of domination, of threats and deterrence.
In 2004, Frank C. Zagare made the case that deterrence is rationally contradictory, not empirically perfect, and that it is incomplete as a theory.The classical deterrence scholars of rational choice have demanded for ideal deterrence that believes the states may differ in their internal character and especially in the threats of retaliation.
In the Wall Street Journal (2007) experts policy planner on cold war, Henry Kissinger, Bill Perry, George Shultz and Sam Nunn upturned their earlier point of view and emphasized that nuclear weapons are now a big risk to save the world peace.Their point of view did not support on the old world with only a few nuclear players, but on the instability in many states possessing the technologies and the lack of where with all too accurately maintain and advance in the weapons in many world states: The risk of misfortune and misunderstanding launches, they pointed out, was growing intensely in a world of competition among new nuclear states, like US and USSR.The emergence of new atomic power states like North Korea carrying nuclear weapons was creating the fear of terrorists to take, obtain or manufacture a nuclear device.Theory of deterrence after 9/11 converted to the new concept of specific to general .This was the fourth wave in deterrence, now the deterrence is also significant strategy security to deter nontraditional security threats to modern states in 21 st century.The border security now extended and added novelty in the nuclear deterrence worldwide.The nontraditional threats were not the part of security plans past with the traditional security issues.
In Pakistan case, the security and deterrence remained fixed to deter India but post 9/11 and Peshawar terrorist attacks December 2014 changed the security concepts, now the deterrence from specific to general is the necessary part of the security policy makers.

Deterrence
Deterrence got prominence after the cold war and new perfect extended and general deterrence concepts attached and added with deterrence as security phenomenon.The new change and shift in deterrence in 1945 after the invention of atomic bomb and its use in Japan.These attacks were a new start and race of nuclear devices and Soviet Union test its nuclear arsenals.Atomic armed race threaten the world peace and many other states including Pakistan experimented the atomic bomb.The nuclear deterrence is now a part of security in these states (Powell,208).They are deterring their opponents by response strike or first strike strategies.The 9/11 terrorist attacks challenged the super power with nuclear arsenals .thesesuccessful attacks criticized the security planners in US and all over the world.Extended deterrence theory modified from specific to general security concepts.Deterrence theory has redefined and refreshed with fourth wave and non-traditional threats of terrorism, ambiguous warfare, human security and cyber threats etc added as essential security concepts.These were neglected and deterrence was not used as security strategy against these threats effectively (Fig. 1).

Deterrence and Security Strategy
Security remained a controversial concept and broader consensus found on its definition (Buzan, 2007).A variety of definitions appeared after cold war like collective security, shared security, and national security (Houge, 2004).For a sustainable security in a state, there are two connotations 1. Limited Security Concept prior to 21 st Century 2. Extended Security Concept in 21 st Century State has gained most importance under this model .The main focus of this approach was that the "secure order will secure the nation".Under this security concept alliances were made in regions and at international level.The theory of collective defense emerged in 20 th century.The end of the cold war and globalization brought new paradigm shift in security concept.
The new security concepts we reintroduced in 21 st century especially after the 9/11.theinternal security issues weaker the states and non state actors involvement increased in internal affairs and as a result of destruction and damaged the security.The new security concept added diplomacy, development, and defense in new security plans (Fig. 2).The post Cold War era has therefore, changed in the security study, security analysis and world order from a traditional military strategies converted to non-traditional approach (Walsh, 2017).
This new security environment and under the changing global facts with reference to the end of the Cold War, domestic terrorism ,international terrorism, human security NTS threats can be harmful to government institutions and civilians and these can derive from a variety of non-state human and natural grounds.The threats may be arise from certain acts by persons or groups, to a certain extent than the actions of states.These threats can be a cause of tremendous economic losses to a specific region or the entire world Richard H. Ullman (1983) in his article mentioned that national security should not be perceived in the 'narrow' sense of security of the state from military attacks from across borders.Such a perception was according to "doubly misleading and therefore doubly dangerous", because it "draws attention away from the non-military threats that promise to undermine the stability of many nations during the years ahead.And it presupposes that threats arising from outside a state are somehow more dangerous to its security than threats that arise within it" (Uleman, 1983).
For the purpose of comprehensive analysis, we can identify non-traditional security threats, namely, Terrorism, Cyber Crimes, Organized Crime, Environmental Security, illegal Migration, Energy Security, Human Security, Ambiguous Warfare, Water Security, Urbanization and Food Security.Full text of this paper can be downloaded online at www.ijssm.org/&http://nepjol.info/index.php/IJSSM/issue/archiveSuch threats to security deserve an adequate significance attention of the securitization of each threat, given the new security environment to the contemporary world.

Selected Non Traditional Threats to Pakistan
Pakistan is facing nontraditional security issues from her inception.Pakistan is a diverse state and the nature of internal security atmosphere varies from one part of the country to the other.

Threat scenario
This internal security situation may leads to following two scenarios.(Afzal, 2012).

Deterrence and Terrorism
Terrorist attacks in US brought a new paradigm shift in the security history.The US policy makers criticized the security agencies in the US and emphasized to novelty in internal security of the state.Pakistan as a counter part in Afghan war with US also highly affected by the terrorism.G.W Bush in a National security meeting in 2002 said" traditional concepts of deterrence will not work against a terrorist enemy whose avowed tactics are wanton destruction and the targeting the innocents."

Strategies for Deterring Terrorism in Pakistan
The terrorists and their facilitators, near -peer and donors can be deal through some strategies mentioned in the Fig. 3

Direct Response Strategy
Direct response techniques aims to deal the terrorist or adversary by threatening to take revenge from the adversary for taking aggressive actions.These are also known as 'punishment Strategy".Practically it is very obvious to deter a suicide bomber but these attackers have a network at their back like donors, facilitators, near peer, families and even their leaders who are conscious about their survival.
The simple laws and threat to their lives can deter the terrorist's behavior.
In Pakistan counter terrorism agencies are working on these lines and with the help of law enforcement forces they are countering with terrorism.
 Pakistan has introduced its first National Internal Security Plan 2014-18 in February 2015 National Action Plan (NAP) in January 2015, the Prime Minister announced to establish military courts and parliament passed 21st Amendment in the constitution.The NISP focuses on negotiation with all stakeholders, to deter and disperse terrorist networks.The NISP divided into two working bodies.

The Comprehensive Response Plan (CRP)
It will deal with the soft component of the approach that endeavors for political participative processes, citizens' support against extremism engage Pakistani youth in healthy activities and de radicalization.

The Composite Deterrence Plan (CDP)
The CDP has focused on capacity-building of NISA and RRF and CTD.Till the end of December 2014 last year, 215 Syed and S. Javed (2017) Int. J. Soc. Sc. Manage. Vol. 4, Issue-4: 267-274 Full text of this paper can be downloaded online at www.

Indirect Response Strategy
Indirect response strategies are not directly deal with terrorist but their families near peer, facilitators, leaders and supporters.To demolish the houses and freeze accounts of all terrorist network operators and families would also be effective to control the terrorism in Pakistan.

Tactical Denial Strategy
This strategy deals with the terrorism by threatening them to refuse an act .ifterrorist are in believe not to be successful in achieving their target the level of motivation will go less.This will help to weaken and demoralize them.Pakistan is also using this technique to deal with terrorism.

Strategic Denial Strategy
Under this strategy Pakistan has controlled the media coverage about terrorist.Pakistan can deter terrorism by denying or by refusal of the ability to create panic situation in Pakistan.But still Pakistan is failed to deal with this issue.Terrorist are using internet websites, social media to convey their messages to people and government officials.It needs to be ban by Pakistan Tele communication Agencies.

Deterrence and Cyber Threats to Pakistan
The 21 st century is considered "age of information" .The advancement in technology has increased the threats to cyber security.The cyber security threats in Pakistan is an emerging issue, Because of cyber security remained unfocused in last decades, it is now a day a more challenging for Pakistan.Pakistan is expanding its elasticity on cyberspace.It is not planning to safe its digital networks.At the result the national infrastructure of the country is also losing its force.it has become a national security threat to Pakistan, so Pakistan actually needs a appropriate cyber secure mechanism for the safety of her national security (Rasool, 2015).(Rasool, 2015).They took 13.5 billion of email, cellular devices and fax communications that makes Pakistan the second highest state to be under observation by the NSA.
The banking sector is also increasing its reliance on cyber space and providing E-banking skills to the Pakistani people, but e-system is not secure, so now mostly people are losing their trust from e-banking system.Still in Pakistan different banks do not offer proper insurance to their customers.There are organized terrorist groups and some anonymous groups throughout the globe who are busy in stealing customers account information (Jamal, 2014).They have technology and skilled criminals in the field of cyber.Even hackers claimed claiming that they have access to national database and registration authority (NADRA).Hacktivism is not a crime in Pakistan, so number of Pakistan's official web sites were hacked and blocked by the hackers.

Cyber Defense Security
Pakistan's nuclear program is also available on cyberspace, so it required a highly secured system without the access of terrorists.Israelis are trying to hack Pakistan's nuclear plans and are spending money, ability and advance technology to offend Pakistan's nuclear program in the world.Laws should be made to punish these black makers.

Legislation against Cyber threats in Pakistan
The National Assembly of Pakistan has (NA) passed the controversial Prevention of Electronic Crimes Bill (PECB) 2015 (Rasool, 2015).The following laws protects the citizen in case of any cyber complaint. 

Findings and Recommendations
The present research paper focused on two research questions, to what extent Deterrence as security strategy can be effective against non Traditional threats in Pakistan?Whether the deterrence as security strategy remained effective against nontraditional threats of terrorism and cyber threats in Pakistan?
After elaborator deep analysis of the selected threat areas in Pakistan, it has found out that deterrence in actual is a purpose to discourage an adversary to attack the atomic power state and make his plan failure.It is a military strategy but now applying in broader sense to deal with nontraditional threats to Pakistan.Deterrence always perceived in limited perspective and our nuclear posture was to deter India but now the internal threats are getting more dangerous than border security, here the present research finds out that Pakistan should use the deterrence approach both on specific and general way.Deterrence can only get partial success and it can be a component not a cornerstone dealing the cyber and terrorism in the country.It has limited role but still is an important part of the counter terrorism strategy.
Pakistan security strategies against cyber threats and terrorism should be more sophisticated in the coming years but need to be redesign.But security planners should take some decisive steps to deal with these threats to Pakistan, Pakistan should improve the ability to carry out strategic communication to the terrorist networks and convey a coherent message to them against their unlawful activities.
1. Tactical denial policies of deterrence did not adopt in Pakistan to deter the criminals and terrorists.2. Pakistan should not fulfil any demand of any Pakistan based or international terrorists groups whether they are getting their targets successfully or not.3. A harsh and precise final message should convey to all non state actors and destroy their networks in the country and punish them through state laws, for this new legislation required.4.An understanding to the all type of knowledge about the non state actors should collect and decide how to deal and destroy them. 5. Political government should work with the collaboration of the military to handle these actors who tries to destabilize the Pakistan.

Conclusion
Deterrence always used by the military to deal with the neighboring countries but this negligence pushed Pakistani state into the hollow of unwanted fear and destabilized the country.The deterrence can only work if a policy of affecting the cost versus gains estimation of perpetrators and their facilitators in Pakistan.
The main conclusion of this research is that deterrence is relevant in all nontraditional threats to Pakistan security, so an effective deterrence security strategy is the need of the time because a stitch in time saves nine.It is also very important to point out and declare the non state actors publically and deal with them legally without any favor.
Social environment of Pakistan is also a big reason to promote these criminals, so to educate the people, deal extremism, set targets, control sectarianism legally and ethnic conflicts with the political consensus.
Law enforcement agencies should work on traditional and nontraditional threats equally as the internally strengthen states can better deal with external border threats.No development can be without full security, so internal security should given an importance, it is not too late to amend.The Pakistani defense mechanism should change with the new world order, old strategies' will not work more to deal with new threats.

Fig. 2 :
Fig. 2: Schematic Security Strategy model.Source: Author'sDeterrence: A security Strategy against Non-Traditional Security ThreatsAt the end of the Cold War, pooled with the emerging tides of globalization, environmental issues, human security issues and international terrorism, has opened new aspects of security.The nature of threats to security debates are persistently changing and this expanding security paradigm has now above the state and military security.With a fragment Soviet Union and a turned into a socialist world, the global tactical environment has been in a constant change.It diverted the focus from military power strategy to many non-traditional security sectors, with improved role of Financial, political, and societal aspects.The focus in ancient time was only being about the military aspect.The post Cold War era has therefore, changed in the security study, security analysis and world order from a traditional military strategies converted to non-traditional approach(Walsh, 2017).
issues, cyber crimes, ambiguous warfare ,water crises, energy crisis and climate change, states need to redefine non-traditional security arrangements in a complete manner.Traditional security concerns are quite accurate and keenly guarded no settlement exists as to what nontraditional security is and what it consist of and what remains expelled.All Non-traditional security threats have a few combined characteristics.These NTS threats are nonmilitary in nature, global in scope, neither absolutely domestic nor merely inter-state and are transmitted rapidly due to globalization.These non-traditional security threats are much more unapproachable as compare to traditional threats as they need the national leadership to not only pay attention to international cooperation, but also to execute interstate socio-economic and political reorganization.Policy makers all over the world are now focusing to enhance the importance of non traditional methods of security to deal with nontraditional threats(Srikant, 2014).The military deterrence, diplomatic plans and temporary political arrangements are insufficient in dealing with nontraditional threats .It requires non-military sources and as well as political, economic and social arrangements to resolve these issues.It is very clear that the non-traditional security threats are now reshaping the global institutional planning.Non-traditional security threats have been redefined as those which are termed are not traditional security threats and are non military, political and tactful conflicts and can be a cause of threats to the development of a sovereign independent state and human beings as a whole.The non-traditional security threats, in comparison with traditional security threats are:

F
.Z.Syed and S. Javed (2017)  Int.J. Soc.Sc.Manage.Vol. 4, Scenario.Internal threat that are slowly and constantly but surely weakening Pakistan's political, economic and psycho -social power potential. Hazardous Scenario.A Constant internal worsening for shaping environment for external opposition, or threat to the national integration.These challenges create hurdles in the way of political, economic and social development in the country.These challenges were not timely and properly handled by the political governments.The weak political institutions did not pay attention on internal security issues and only border defense remained in the focus of military.The NT security strategies were not the part of national security plans.Post 9/11 changes in the world security plans also not seriously perceived in Pakistan.The attentions to some NT security issues were paid after Army Public School Peshawar terrorist attacks.The political governments (Federal and Provincial) in Pakistan, national security agencies, military and all political parties' leadership jointly sit to reset, redefine and re design the security strategies in Pakistan.Pakistan has introduced its first National Internal Security Policy (NISP-2014-2018) in 2014

Fig. 3 :
Fig. 3: Strategies for terrorists and their facilitators Source: Authors observation According to InteriorMinister approximately 62,000 operations under NAP 68,000 terrorists imprisoned.Till January 2015 according to NAP annual report, 72 groups have been banned by the Ministry of Interior.Furthermore, NACTA has declared some 11,000 Deobandi madrassas as "susceptible".In February 2015 a report presented in the Senate committee and disclosed that the Punjab police disclosed 950 Pakistan based organizations received hundreds of millions of Pakistani rupees from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and fourteen other Non Muslim and Muslim countries.General Raheel Sharif, COAS in his Defense Day speech, said: "We shall not relent until all terrorists, their financiers, abettors, facilitators and sympathizers are brought to justice.Zarb-e-Azab military operation started to abolish all terrorist networks in FATA and other areas, in the result 70% crime rate minimize and terrorist's attacks ratio also low down in the country.To deter and counter terrorists many agencies are being introduced or functional, for instance CAFs, ISI, DIS ,IB, ISI, Mol, FIA, IAS, NISCO, OPC, CIT and RRF.All above sated agencies/departments/forces would deal the various responsibilities (Table1).

Table 1 :
Various responsibilities terrorism agencies/departments/forces Functions

of Counter Terrorism Agencies in Pakistan
All above stated crimes are a big source of uncertainty in Pakistani people.It required deterring the criminal groups through direct or indirect response strategies in Pakistan.
Wrong Information about a person: up to 3 Years jailor up to Rs. 1 Million in Fine  Spreading videos of an Individual: up to 5 Years jail and up to Rs. 5 Million in Fine/both  Making / Spreading Explicit Images or Videos of Minor: up to 7 Years in Prison or up to Rs. 5 Million in Fine or both  Child pornography in case of sexual abuse above 7 Years in Prison / up to Rs. 5 Million in Fine / both  Cyber aggravation: above age 3 Years in Jail / Up to Rs. 1 Million in Fine / both  Hacking one's Email / phone for aggravation: above age 3 Years in Jail / Up to Rs. 1 Million in