Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Cryospheric and Hydrological Processes in the Dudhkoshi Basin

Abstract

The Himalayan region is highly sensitive to climate change, where rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are directly influencing cryospheric processes and downstream hydrology. This study investigates long-term climatic and cryospheric variations in the Dudhkoshi Basin. We used ERA5 reanalysis data for temperature and precipitation(1995 to 2024), MODIS snow cover (2000-2024), and GloFAS discharge data (1995-2023) to analyse trends and relationships. Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test were used to examine trends, while correlation analysis assessed the relationships between discharge, snow cover, and climate drivers. The resultsindicate asignificant warming trend of +0.04°C/yearand an increasing trend in precipitation of +16 mm/year. Discharge also shows anotable increasing trend of +1.5 m³/s/year, reflecting intensifying hydrological conditions. Although not statistically significant, a declining trend in snow cover with extensive seasonal fluctuation is also observed. Correlation analysis highlights a strong negative relationship betweentemperature and snow cover (r= -0.46, p < 0.05), while precipitation has a seasonally varying influence, showing a strong positive correlation during winter. These findings emphasize the cryosphere of the basin’s sensitivity to climate change and the influence of temperature and precipitation on snow cover dynamics and water yield.