Impact of Climate Change and Integrated Approach to Adaptation Strategies – A Case Study of Nuwakot District, Nepal

Abstract

Climate change is an inevitable challenge to agriculture. In this paper we intend to gain insights into perceptions of climate change, its impacts, and the adaptation strategies adopted by the farming community in Nuwakot District. The study integrates (i) annual climate indicators for 1976-2019, (ii) yield for major cereal crops (paddy, maize, wheat, millet, barley) for fiscal years 2004/05–2014/15, and (iii) qualitative information from household surveys, field observations, and group discussions conducted in 2020 to assess perceptions of farmers on climate change, perceived impacts, and adaptation responses in Nuwakot District. The climatic trends were analysed using ordinary least squares regression and the Mann–Kendall test with Sen’s slope estimator and additionally, sub-period analyses (1976–1999 and 2000–2019) were used to identify shifts in hydro-climatic behaviour in Nuwakot District. The annual mean maximum, minimum, and derived mean temperatures increased by 1.06, 0.91, and 0.99 °C per decade, respectively (Mann–Kendall p < 0.001). Rainfall exhibited no significant monotonic trend over 1976–2019, but sub-period analysis indicated increasing rainfall in 1976–1999 (+16.98 mm/month per decade; p = 0.03) and declining rainfall after 2000, alongside decreasing relative humidity in 2000–2019 (−4.19% per decade; p = 0.001). The crop yields increased over 2004/05–2014/15, particularly paddy (+179.1 kg/ha/year; p = 0.0003) and maize (+126.8 kg/ha/year; p = 0.0019). The farmers perceived fewer rainy days, higher rainfall intensity, drying water sources, rising pest pressure, invasive plant spread, and irregular flowering/fruiting, and responded through an integrated set of measures: water harvesting and efficient irrigation (ponds, drip), microclimate protection (tunnels), improved varieties and cropping shifts, and organic soil enhancements (compost/vermicompost). These findings indicate rapid warming and changing hydro-climatic conditions. In the meantime, the study highlights locally grounded, practical adaptations that aid targeted support, especially for water security to strengthen climate-resilient agriculture in the mid-hills of Nepal.