The Anatomy of a Geopolitical Shock: West Asian Conflict and its Socio-Political, Economic, and Security Implications for India and Pakistan

Abstract

The rise of conflict among Iran, Israel, and the US poses a critical geostrategic challenge for South Asian economies amid great-power competition. This study examines the South Asian tightrope between potential relations with the West and energy dependencies in the Middle East. This key research question has yet to be systematically explored. The paper employs exploratory qualitative geopolitical risk analysis and scenario modelling, combined with quantitative economic indicators, to assess the susceptibility of India and Pakistan to major maritime disruptions. The key findings are that a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would stop over 50 per cent of India’s strategic crude imports and 90 per cent of its polluting crude, causing catastrophic inflation, severe contractions in remittances, and acute disruptions in fertiliser supply chains. These disruptions are having a fundamental destabilising impact on regional nuclear deterrence and fueling the dangerous India-Pakistan-China nuclear trilemma. In conclusion, the study establishes that reactive, ad hoc diplomacy must be left behind in South Asia. Rather than aggressively pursuing rapid expansion of strategic petroleum reserves, integrate maritime resilience frameworks to secure regional energy security, support stable long-term economic survival, and operate amid changing global Eurasian alliance dynamics.