Trend and Forecasting of Major Cereals Production in Nepal: An Autoregressive Integration Moving Average Approach

Abstract

Paddy, maize and wheat are the major staple food crops grown and consumed in Nepal. But the country has been relying heavily on the import for meeting its demand in recent past. In this context, the study was carried out to analyze the pattern and prediction of paddy, maize and wheat production in Nepal. The time series data on production of paddy, maize and wheat in Nepal for the period of 1961/62 to 2023/24 were used to identify the trend, and the most widely used time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), was applied for modelling and forecasting the production of selected three crops. The best fit ARIMA models for forecasting were found (1,1,1,) for paddy (3,1,1,) for maize and (1,1,1,) for wheat respectively. These models were further analyzed to validate for no significance autocorrelation among residuals. Although, the identified models were found more reliable in forecasting production trend of paddy, maize and wheat for 2025/26 to 2029/2030. Moreover, the increasing trend was projected for all the three crops through these best fit models. The forecasted value of paddy, maize and wheat for the year 2025/26 will 6497197 MT, 3319077 MT and 2360210 MT which will raise to 7047955 MT, 3666644 MT and 2878554 MT for the year 2029/30 respectively. The result from the study implies the increasing trend of paddy, maize and wheat in future which would play a vital role in designing production plan, food security, import reduction and maintain price stability in the market.