Spatial and Socio-Economic Heterogeneity of the Demographic Dividend in Nepal

Abstract

The demographic dividend offers a special time-limited growth in economic growth when the population of working age increases compared to those who depend on the population in a country. In this paper, secondary data were used to determine the spatial and socio-economic inequalities of this dividend in Nepal, through the National Statistics Office (NSO) 2021Census. Through the application of a powerful quantitative research approach that involves the use of Z-tests to test proportions, the Chi-square (χ2) tests to test independence, and Pearson Correlation (r), the study can map the population distribution of the working-age population (WAP) and the dependency ratio among ecological belts, provinces, and wealth quintiles. The findings demonstrate that the spatial difference is statistically significant, with urban municipalities and the Bagmati province having a high level of demographic transition, whilst rural regions and the Karnali province are characterized by high child dependency (41.6%). The result was a near-perfect negative correlation between the wealth quintiles and dependency ratios (r = -0.98, p =.001), which shows that the dividend is now a privilege of the upper-most strata of the socio-economic hierarchy. Most importantly, the research determines that there is a negative population growth rate (of the working-age population) of rural municipalities (-2.73%), which is an indicator of the demographic hollowing-out as a result of out-migration. This essay claims that the demographic dividend in Nepal will only serve to reinforce the regional and class disparities in the region, without localized, equity-based policy interventions, and will not be a spur to national prosperity.