Changing Scenario of Sex Ratio at Birth and Its Future Implications in Nepal

Abstract

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Nepal has historically remained within or near the biologically normal range of 102–107 male births per 100 female births. However, the 2078 BS. (2021 AD.) Population and Housing Census reports an SRB of 112, indicating a distinctly male-skewed pattern. Using census-based time series data from 2009/2011 to 2078, along with disaggregated indicators by district, province, urbanization level, wealth quintile, and educational status, this paper analyzes the changing SRB trends in Nepal and their potential future implications. The analysis reveals that while earlier SRB levels were largely consistent with natural variation, recent increases—particularly in Madhes Province and districts such as Dhanusha and Siraha—strongly suggest the emergence of sex-selective practices amid declining fertility and persistent son preference. If these trends continue, Nepal may face long-term consequences, including a surplus of marriageable-age males, disruptions in family formation, and heightened risks of gender-based violence and social instability, underscoring the need for proactive, multi-sectoral policy responses.