The Indo-Pacific Construct and South Asia: Security Dilemmas in a Fragmenting World Order

Abstract

This article explores how the Indo‑Pacific framework is altering South Asia’s security setting and what that means for the strategic autonomy of smaller states, using Nepal as the central case. It addresses two questions: how the Indo‑Pacific has recast South Asia’s security dilemmas, and its effects on the small‑state autonomy in general and Nepal in particular. The study examines great‑power rivalry, changes in regional institutions, and domestic contestation over foreign policy choices. It adopts a qualitative descriptive approach and applies a three‑level analysis (systemic, regional, and domestic) using theoretical lenses of neorealism and Regional Security Complex Theory. The study is developed through secondary evidence drawn from scholarly work, policy and institutional reports, and selected media and think‑tank analyses. The Indo‑Pacific construct has pulled South Asia more directly into the U.S.–China India rivalry. This region has witnessed intensified militarization and securitization through initiatives like BRI and maritime expansion. Regional cooperation has been fragmented due to the stagnation of SAARC. Nepal’s case shows how these pressures turn development and borders into geopolitical contests (MCC vs. BRI and the Kalapani border issue). This power contestation has pushed Kathmandu to adopt a policy of hedging through selective economic and non‑traditional security cooperation while avoiding military alignment. Overall, this study highlights how structural constraints and limited agency coexist. It recommends stronger regional cooperation, diversified partnerships, and greater focus on non‑traditional security to protect small‑state autonomy.