From voluntarism to incentivised forest fire management in Nepal: Evidence on labour costs and risk perceptions from four CFUGS

Abstract

Nepal’s community forestry model, recognised for decentralised governance, has long relied on voluntary collective action. Rural out-migration and rising labour opportunity costs are weakening this model as climate-driven forest fire risks intensify. This study examines a shift toward incentive-based management through a pilot program that introduced wages, personal protective equipment (PPE), and technical training across four Community Forest User Groups (CFUGs). Using a convergent mixed-methods design, the study analysed quantitative data from 87 participants, along with 24 key informant interviews and 8 focus group discussions. McNemar’s chi-squared and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests show that although daily wages were only 6.1 per cent above market rates, the effective hourly wage premium reached 32.01 per cent. This higher valuation encouraged participation among households previously excluded due to the opportunity cost of unpaid labour. Technical knowledge scores improved significantly (p < 0.001). However, a clear “risk gap” emerged. Participants preferred institutional insurance over PPE, reflecting concern about income loss from injury. Willingness to participate was assessed through stated preference scenarios with and without wage incentives, not observed behaviour over time. Governance challenges remain. Risks of elite capture persist, and gender barriers limit participation. Women formed 55 per cent of trainees but remained underrepresented in fire response leadership. Overall, the findings from this pilot study suggest that the long-term viability of community forestry in transitioning economies depends on a gradual shift from “free labour” assumptions toward more incentive-compatible models. These results provide indicative evidence to inform future research and policy design in similar contexts.