Impact of Stone Mining–Induced Land Use Land Cover Change on Cascading Disaster: A Case Study of Panauti Municipality

Abstract

The severe flash flood that affected Wards 2 and 12 of Panauti Municipality highlighted the growing influence of land use and land cover (LULC) change on mining-induced cascading disasters. This study aimed to map LULC changes and assess their relationship with stone mining expansion and flood impacts between 2018 and 2025. Sentinel-2 imagery (10 m resolution) obtained from Living Atlas was used to generate LULC maps for 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 through a hybrid classification approach combining supervised and unsupervised techniques, followed by accuracy assessment. Change detection and spatial analyses were conducted to evaluate mining expansion and associated landscape transformations. Results showed that the stone mining area increased from 0.258 km² in 2018 to 0.4478 km² in 2025, accompanied by a substantial reduction in rangeland from 6.2287 km² to 4.110 km². River area expanded following the September 28, 2025 flash flood due to channel migration, debris deposition, and floodplain enlargement, consistent with field observations. Built-up area increased from 0.8162 km² in 2018 to 1.5247 km² in 2022 but declined to 1.0881 km² after the flood, indicating damage to settlements. These findings demonstrate that rapid land cover changes, particularly mining expansion and vegetation loss, increased the watershed's susceptibility to cascading flood hazards. The study provides valuable evidence for sustainable land-use planning, mining regulation, watershed management, hazard assessment, and disaster risk reduction in vulnerable mountainous regions.