Time Trend and prediction of Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy in Nepal: A Statistical Modelling

  • Brijesh Sathian Assistant Professor, Community Medicine Department Pokhara
  • Ajay Kumar Assistant Professor, Department of Dermatology, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara
  • Jayadevan Sreedharan Assistant Director, Research Division, Gulf Medical University, Ajman
  • Indrajit Banerjee Assistant Professor, Department of Pharmacology, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara
  • Bedanta Roy Assistant Professor, Department of Physiology, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara
  • E Rajesh Assistant Professor, School of Behavioural Sciences, Mahatma Gandhi University
Keywords: Grade 2 Disability, leprosy, statistical modelling, Nepal

Abstract

Background 

It is estimated that globally there are around 2 million people with grade 2 disabilities attributed to leprosy. Objective of the study was to find out the time trends of Grade 2 Disability among the new cases of Leprosy in Nepal.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from the Health ministry records of Nepal, between 2009 and 2013. The annual reported numbers of Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy plotted in y-axis against the corresponding year in the x-axis. Curve fitting, also known as regression analysis, was used to find the "best fit" line or curve for a series of data points. Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, and Cubic were chosen to fit to the obtained curve. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the analysis and forecasting of data.

Results

Including the constant term from the equation, the inverse model was the best fit, for the forecasting of the Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy in Nepal [R2=0.739, p=0.062]. Using inverse model, it is estimated that 78 with CI [0, 170] of Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy can be expected in Nepal by the year 2020.

Conclusion

Our study proves Inverse model is the best fit for epidemiological modelling of Grade 2 Disability among the new cases of Leprosy in Nepal. Prevention of disabilities should begin with diagnosing leprosy.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/nje.v4i3.10668

Nepal Journal of Epidemiology 2014; 4(3): 378-383

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Abstract
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Published
2014-06-29
How to Cite
Sathian, B., Kumar, A., Sreedharan, J., Banerjee, I., Roy, B., & Rajesh, E. (2014). Time Trend and prediction of Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy in Nepal: A Statistical Modelling. Nepal Journal of Epidemiology, 4(3), 378-383. https://doi.org/10.3126/nje.v4i3.10668
Section
Original Articles