Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India

Authors

  • Brijesh Sathian Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
  • Jayadevan Sreedharan College of Medicine, Gulf Medical University Ajman, UAE
  • Mohammad Asim Hamad General Hospital, Doha, Qatar
  • Ritesh G Menezes King Fahd Hospital of the University, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia (KSA)
  • Edwin van Teijlingen Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, UK
  • Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan Kasturba Medical College (Affiliated with Manipal Academy of Higher Education), Mangalore, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3126/nje.v8i3.23752

Keywords:

Incubation time, Human Immunodeficiency Virus, AIDS, statistical modelling, Kerala

Abstract

Background: Worldwide, 36.7 million people were infected with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) by the end of 2015. Over the period 2007 to 2015, there was a declining trend in the prevalence of adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the state of Kerala, India.  The current study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases.

Materials and Methods: The requisite data were obtained from the Kerala State AIDS Control Society (KSACS) for the years 2007 to 2015. To assess the distribution of HIV incubation time, the data of 22 HIV-infected Keralite patients were retrieved from the medical records of a teaching hospital.  Data included age, gender, and incubation time. The back-calculation method was utilized to predict the cumulative HIV/AIDS cases.

Results: The estimated total cumulative AIDS cases in Kerala for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 were found to be 35,777, 48,944, 62,039, 45,669, 45,668, and 43,605, 42,377, 39,362, 37,617, 39,583, 25,414 respectively using back-calculation method with Weibull (2) incubation time distribution. The mean incubation time of the total HIV cases (male and female) was 4.4 years which indicates a rapid progression of the disease in the state of Kerala.

Conclusion: The back-calculation method is a powerful tool to estimate the cumulative frequency of AIDS cases; which predicted a declining HIV trend among Keralites. Moreover, the Weibull distribution is the best fitted distribution for HIV incubation time in our population.

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Author Biographies

Brijesh Sathian, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar

Academic Research Associate, Clinical Research, Trauma and Vascular Surgery, Surgery Department

Jayadevan Sreedharan, College of Medicine, Gulf Medical University Ajman, UAE

Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics

Mohammad Asim, Hamad General Hospital, Doha, Qatar

Academic Research Associate, Clinical Research, Trauma Surgery, Surgery

Ritesh G Menezes, King Fahd Hospital of the University, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia (KSA)

Professor, Department of Pathology, College of Medicine

Edwin van Teijlingen, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, UK

Professor, Centre for Midwifery, Maternal and Perinatal Health

Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Kasturba Medical College (Affiliated with Manipal Academy of Higher Education), Mangalore, India

Associate Dean and Professor, Department of Community Medicine

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Published

2018-11-30

How to Cite

Sathian, B., Sreedharan, J., Asim, M., Menezes, R. G., Teijlingen, E. van, & Unnikrishnan, B. (2018). Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India. Nepal Journal of Epidemiology, 8(3), 738–744. https://doi.org/10.3126/nje.v8i3.23752

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Original Articles