Assessment of Tourism in Nepal with Reference to Regional Countries: Trend Analysis and ARIMA Approach
Keywords:Trend analysis, Akaike Information Criterion, autoregressive integrated moving average, Autocorrelation function, partial autocorrelation function
Tourism (either domestic or international or both) is an internationally flourished business or industry all over the world. The economic foundations of tourism are essentially the cultural assets, the cultural property and the nature of the travel location. So, it has a greater contribution to the country’s balance of payments. Simple trend analysis was carried out using a set of line graphs along simple linear regression. For forecasting of international tourist arrivals of period: 1962-2020, and real per capita international tourist receipts of period: 1995-2018, the suitable Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed using Akaike Information Criterion along with method of autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function.
Nepal has a significant growth rate of 1.372 of the international tourist arrivals. It has the eighth position for international tourist arrivals among nine counties. Likewise, Nepal has a significant growth rate of 1.315 of real per capita international tourist receipts. It has the fourth position for real per capita international tourist receipts among nine counties.
Nepal has been receiving its international tourist arrivals, growth as well as real per capita international tourist receipts. Forecasts of international tourist arrivals of Nepal are 879638.3 in 2018, 860459.0 in 2019, 875824.1 in 2020, 891189.3 in 2021, and 906554.4 in 2022. Forecasts of real per capita international receipts in dollars are 687000000 in 2019, 727000000 in 2020, 807000000 in 2021, and 845000000 in 2022.