Shaken to the Core: Analyzing the Effect of Nepal’s 2015 Earthquake on Infant Death and Developmental Losses

Abstract

The 2015 Nepal earthquake, which affected approximately 8 million people and resulted in an economic loss of $10 billion, provides a unique possibility to examine the impact of natural disasters on infant mortality in a developing country context. This study exploits the quasi-random spatial and temporal variation in ground tremor intensity to evaluate the causal effect of the earthquake on individual-level infant death. Employing the difference in-differences research design, we find a statistically significant increase in the probability of infant death in districts severely affected by the earthquake. Our results further indicate that this effect is not substantially more pronounced in the seven most severely impacted districts. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis reveals a gender disparity, with male infants experiencing a higher probability of death compared to female infants. To summarize, these results provide compelling evidence that natural disasters like earthquakes can substantially elevate infant mortality rates in developing countries, posing immediate and long-term developmental loss. These findings contribute to the literature on the economic consequences of natural disasters and provide robust evidence of their significant impact on infant mortality in developing economies, with implications for disaster preparedness and response policies, as well as for immediate support .