Dynamics of Time Varying Volatility in Stock Returns: Evidence from Nepal Stock Exchange
Keywords:ARCH, GARCH, GARCH-M, TGARCH, EGARCH, conditional volatility, volatility, persistence, heteroscedasticity, shocks
This study examines the properties of time varying volatility of daily stock returns in Nepal over the period 2011-2020 using 2059 observations on daily returns of NEPSE index series. The study examines various symmetric and asymmetric GARCH family models using several specifications of error distribution. The results of symmetric GARCH (1,1) and GARCH-M (1, 1) models indicate that there is volatility persistence in daily returns on composite NEPSE index series over the sampled period. However, the estimated results for GARCH-M (1, 1) models show that the stock returns in Nepal offer no significant risk premium to hedge against risk associated with investment in stocks. The study also demonstrates that asymmetric TGARCH (1, 1) and EGARCH (1, 1) models fail to capture the leverage effects on the volatility. Finally, study results show that GARCH (1, 1) with student’s t error distribution model is the best fitted one to capture the volatility persistence of daily returns on NEPSE index series over the sampled period. The findings from this study offers an additional insight in understanding the volatility pattern of daily stock returns in Nepal for the most recent period that helps investors in forming a sound strategy to address the risk pattern of investing in stock market of Nepal.
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